Page 155 - Çevre Şehir İklim İngilizce - Sayı 4

Orhan İNCE - H. Abdullah UÇAN et al.

Table 1. Climate Index Classifications

EE Climate
No IL Climate classification DME Climate classification
classification
1 0-20 Desert <30 Arid 0-10 Arid
2 20,1-40 Arid 30-50 Semi-arid 10,1-20 Semi-arid
Semi-hu- Semi-arid and humid
3 40,1-60 Semi-arid 50-90 20,1-24
mid (Mediterranean)
4 60,1-100 Semi >90 Humid 24,1-28 Semi-humid
5 100,1-160 Humid 28,1-35 Humid
6 35,1-55
7 >55 Extremely humid

2.4. IPCC and Climate Scenarios
Predicting the processes that are or will be experienced on Earth is quite
difficult due to complex dynamics (Isinkaralar and Varol, 2023). However,
efforts to predict future events based on probabilities depending on certain
assumptions are quite useful, as they provide the possibility of intervention
before experiencing the certain risks. With this approach, the IPCC produces
acceptance-based and story-based scenarios for the future of the climate.
Information is provided for the scenarios in the framework of the reports
including Special Report on Emission Scenarios in the period 2007-2013: SRES
(IPCC, 2007), Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP in 2013 (IPCC,
2013) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSPs covering the scenarios in
which sustainable urbanization is achieved/ not achieved in 2020 (Yang et al.,
2020). Within the scope of the study, SSP scenario groups were used. SSPs
are included in the 6th Assessment Report prepared by IPCC. The report is
based on the parameters of the current century. Since risk management and
sound decision-making under uncertainty require knowledge of the extreme
points, scenarios with medium and high impacts produced in the report were
selected instead of optimistic approaches in the scenarios. The change of
climate zones has been estimated within the framework of moderate (SSP
245) and pessimistic (SSP 585) scenarios defined in the report.

3. Findings

Climate indices, which allow the readability of spatial climate zones,
enable the prediction of the future climate structure with the development
of geographical information systems as a tool. Figure 3 shows the climate
classification according to the estimates made depending on different indices.
Accordingly, it is predicted that the Mediterranean climate and humidity

144 The Journal of Environment, Urban and Climate