Page 157 - Çevre Şehir İklim İngilizce - Sayı 4

Orhan İNCE - H. Abdullah UÇAN et al.

According to the Lang Index, arid areas, which currently constitute 9% of the
basin, will be prevalent in 96% of the area by the year 2100 according to the
SSP 585 scenario. While semi-arid areas are rapidly turning into arid areas, it is
observed that the semi-humid areas and the humid climate existing in the area
today tend to dominate more limited areas. However, according to SSP 585, it
is seen in Figure 4 that the areas with desert climate, which constitute the most
critical classification, began to emerge in the year 2100 for the first time.
According to the Emberger classification, 68% of the area is in the semi-humid
climate zone and tends to disappear in the target year of 2100 according to SSP
585. On the contrary, it is observed that semi-arid and arid areas have started to
form. According to SSP 585, the semi-arid areas that prevail in the area in 2080
are starting to be replaced by arid areas in the 20-year period. The humid areas in
the basin in 2020 are not present after 2080 according to SSP 245 and after 2060
according to SSP585.
According to the De Martonne climate indices, semi-arid areas that are not
present in the area today will dominate 75% of the area. Arid areas will cover
an area of 45% while semi-arid areas will be by 49%. It is predicted that the
areas with Mediterranean climate and semi-humid climate, which constitute
the characteristic climatic structure of the basin, will begin to disappear.
Depending on the indices, it is observed that the humidity level decreases
and drought levels increase in terms of the temporal change of climate zones.

Figure 4. Temporal change of climate zones depending on indices

146 The Journal of Environment, Urban and Climate