Page 140 - 7. State Of Environment Report Of Türkiye

into rain. Snow is an important source of water throughout the year. In addition, increasing tem-
peratures will cause the snow to melt early in spring. The third problem is the risk of excessive
precipitation, especially in the summer season and in the western and northern coastal parts
of Anatolia (Coastal Aegean, Marmara and Black Sea regions). These extreme precipitations are
likely to cause floods and overflows as in recent years.

The results obtained by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry General Directorate of Water
Management (SYGM) for the period 2071-2100 in the “Project for Determining the Effect of Cli-
mate Change on Snow Melts and Flows”, in which the effect of climate change on snow load and
melts until the end of the 21 century and the changes that these melts will cause in river flows
st
in the Upper Fırat Basin (Keban Dam upstream), where approximately 70% of the total annual
water potential consists of snow melts, are given below:
y Snow-covered areas in the Upper Fırat Sub basin have decreased by up to 44% compared
to the period 1970-2000;

y ‘Snow-covered days’ in more than half of the basin will decrease by 1.5 months compared
to the past (1970-2000),

y Precipitation is mostly in the form of rain and precipitation in the March-June period dec-
reases by at least 10%,
y Bringing forward the start of the snowmelt period by up to 10-15 days,

y The basin will be fed by precipitation falling as rain instead of precipitation falling as snow,

y Later accumulation and earlier melting of snow cover.
The results of the studies carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry to determine
the effects of climate change on water resources are shared on the web address http://iklim.
tarimorman.gov.tr.
Within the framework of the Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (2019-
2023) and the National Climate Change Action Plan (2011-2023), within the scope of the integ-
rated project titled “Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture”, in order to monitor the effects
of global climate change on agricultural ecosystems, the positive / negative effects of climate
variability are carried out with regional and national studies by using climate-atmospheric mo-
dels and different climate scenarios in products with high added value in the country.

Within the scope of the study carried out by TSMS and SYGM by using the Representative Con-
th
centration Pathways (RCPs) published in line with the 5 Assessment Period of the Intergover-
nmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 20-kilometre resolution projection outputs were pro-
duced using 3 global climate models RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. There was a need to update
the existing climate projections in line with the emission scenarios published within the scope
of the IPCC 6 Assessment Report (AR6), which was updated in order to remove uncertainty by
th
determining the hazards and risks that Türkiye will face due to climate change with the highest
accuracy. In this direction, Climate Projections Study will be carried out by the Directorate of
Climate Change with a resolution of 3 kilometres by using 6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for
the reference period 1940-2015 and the future period 2015-2100, and 2 different emission sce-
narios (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5) updated within the scope of IPCC AR6 by dynamic downscaling
method.

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