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y “Determination of the Effects of Snow Cover Change Due to Climate Change on Crop Pro-
duction”,

y “Effects of Climatic Changes on Soy Crop in Mersin Region”,

y “Determination of Perceptions of Sheep Breeders towards Global Climate Change in Diyar-
bakır Province”,

y “Investigation of the Effects of Climatic Factors on Phenology and Fruit Quality of Fig” (2015-
2022),

y “Investigation of the Effect of Climatic Factors on Fruit Yield and Quality in Viticulture: Ma-
nisa Region (2021-2025),
y “Determination of the Effects of Climate Change on Crop Water Consumption of Irrigated
Crops: The Case of Lower Gediz Basin (2021-2022)”,

y “Determination of the Effects of Climate Change on the Suitability Areas of Some Important
Agricultural Products Countrywide Project (2020-2022),

y “Countrywide Project on Determining Resilience to Climate Change in Agricultural Produc-
tion” (2020-2022)

y “Project on Relating Climate Variables and Damage Determinations in Some Crops and Cre-
ating Risk Maps” (2019-2021).

B.3. Global Climate Models and Climate Change Projections

Since global climate modelling studies are not sufficient in terms of resolution, higher resolu-
tion and more detailed studies are carried out by downscaling studies on the basis of regions
or countries. In this context, climate change projections were produced by the Turkish State
Meteorological Service (TSMS) for the first time in Türkiye. The results were included in the 7
th
National Communication on Climate Change and OECD Türkiye Report prepared in 2018.
Climate change data produced by the global climate model are shared with public institutions
and organizations, universities and the private sector. These data are used in climate change and
adaptation studies and scientific researches.

According to the results of climate change projection studies for Türkiye, the annual average
temperature increase in Türkiye is projected to be between 1.0°C - 2.0°C for the period 2016-
2040, between 1.5°C - 4.0°C for the period 2041-2070 and finally between 1.5°C - 5.0°C for the
period 2071-2099. In some scenarios, the temperature increases for the period 2071-2099 is
projected to reach 3.0°C in winter and 8.0°C in summer.

In terms of precipitation, increases in precipitation are projected for the winter season throu-
ghout the country, decreases in precipitation in the spring season except for the coastal and
north-eastern parts of the country in all periods, decreases in precipitation in the summer sea-
son except for the west coast and north-eastern parts of the country, and an overall decrease in
precipitation in the fall season. According to the results of the projection study, although there
is no regular upward or downward trend in precipitation during the projection period (2016-
2099), the irregularity of the precipitation regime is noticeable (TSMS- TRCC- 2015; MoEU, 2018).

In the context of climate change, serious risks are foreseen to occur in the river basins of Türkiye
under new climatic conditions. One of these is the decrease in the amount of precipitation in the
basins in the interior and south of Anatolia, especially in the Fırat-Dicle basin. The second is that
increasing temperatures cause changes in the type of precipitation and winter snowfall turns

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