Page 181 - Çevre Şehir İklim İngilizce - Sayı 1

Deniz Kaymak - Merih Aydınalp Köksal

Using the fuel consumption values estimated based on three scenarios for
the years, 2018-2030, and through utilizing the IPCC Tier 1 approach given in
Equation (2), CO emission based on fuel consumption was calculated. Figure
2
5 displays the CO emissions based on the three scenarios. As seen in the
2
figure, the CO emission based on international civil aviation is estimated to
2
be 23.54 million tons to 31.21 million tons. In this case, the 2017 CO emissions
2
are expected to increase by 1.5 times, or even double. As the literature does
not contain any studies on the estimation of CO emissions referring to Türkiye,
2
the comparative analysis can only be made with the Türkiye National Inventory
Report issued in April 2019. The report contains 1990-2017 CO emissions
2
based on international aviation. Using the 2017 fuel consumption data given
in the report, international aviation CO emission was calculated through the
2
IPCC Tier 1 calculation approach as 11.11 million tons (TÜİK, 2019). In this
study, however, 2017 CO emission was calculated as 16.29 million tons.
2

Figure 5: The CO2 emissions estimated based on three scenarios
for the years, 2018-2030 (Million ton)

General Findings

Civil Aviation sector contributes to global anthropogenic CO emissions by
2
around 2-3%. Although the sector has a little contribution to climate change,
it has a much higher growth trend compared to other sectors. In addition, as
in all developing countries, civil aviation activities in Türkiye have been rapidly
increasing in terms of air traffic as well. Thus, the CO emissions based on
2
the sector also increase in proportion to this growth rate, and has a negative
effect on climate change. However, the sector growth can be maintained

166 Journal of Environment, Urbanization and Climate,