Page 182 - Çevre Şehir İklim İngilizce - Sayı 1

Estimation of Co Emission
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without restricting the aviation activities in Türkiye through local and regional
preservation measures. However, there is a lack of a guiding estimation practice
to inform decision making mechanisms for sustainable growth in the sector.
Therefore, this study aims to develop a method for CO emission estimations
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for a country experience rapid growth in aviation sector. For this purpose, the
main factors with an effect on air traffic were investigated. Moreove, this study
is the first comprehensive study to estimate the international air traffic demand
for Turkish civil aviation sector, to identify the fuel demand for international
flights by Turkish plane operators, and to calculate the related CO emissions.
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The model developed in the study to estimate flight passenger numbers
was utilized based on three scenarios, namely, low, medium and high air
traffic scenarios. The flight passenger numbers based on low, medium and
high scenarios was estimated to rise from 160.918 million passenger-km in
2017 to 283.140, 325.359 to 375.270 million passing-km in 2030. The findings
concerning fuel demand by Turkish civil aviation according to low, medium
and high scenarios by 2030 is estimated to 7.5 million tons, 8.6 million
tons and 10 million tons respectively. As part of the low scenario, the CO 2
emissions in 2030 based on the international civil aviation activities in Türkiye
is estimated to be 25.54 million tons. Even in this most optimistic scenario, the
CO emissions by international aviation in Türkiye are expected to increase
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1.5 times compared to 2017 levels. In the high scenario, on the other hand,
the 2030 CO emissions are estimated to be 31.21 million tons, which expects
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the 2030 CO emissions to double compared to 2017. The results of this study
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show that the CO emissions from civil aviation sector in Türkiye will continue
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to be one of the rapidly increasing sources of emission. Moreover, in the near
future, the civil aviation sector may be expected to constitute a big share of
the Turkish carbon budget.
This study was done prior to COVID-19 pandemic and the results of this
pandemic, which had a huge impact on aviation were not included in the
estimations made in the study. Due to the pandemic, through the flight bans
in 2020, aviation sector almost came to halt. It is predicted that it will take
time for flights to return to their normal levels. For this reason, the estimations
in this study can be used for predictions on aviation if air travel returns to
previous levels.

Year 1 / Issue 1 / Jan 2022 167