Page 242 - Çevre Şehir İklim İngilizce - Sayı 2

Where Do Strong Winds And Storms Stand
In The Context Of Climate Change?

measures lead to more frequent disasters such as hails, cyclones, droughts,
floods and forest fires, which disrupt the ecological balance of our country.
Moreover, with the disruption of ecological balance, hurricanes, floods and
fires result in more casualties.” (GNAT Climate Report, 2021).
Around Türkiye, according to scenarios related to 2016-2040 period
scenarios, the average temperature, especially in spring and summer seasons,
is estimated to rise around 3°C. And the temperature increase will reach
0.5°C-1.5°C around the country, while in summer months, it will reach up to
2°C in all regions except for the north of Türkiye. The warming is estimated
to be around 1°C-1.5°C, which will exceed 1.5°C in the west of the country in
summer months and in the east in autumn (GNAT Climate Report, 222). It is
estimated to reach 29-30°C in 2016-2040 period, 29-32°C in 2041-2070 period,
and 32-35°C in 2071-2099 period. This change in the average temperatures
reveals that it will happen in more places and more intensely in tropical days,
the possibility of extreme heats has increased, and Türkiye may be exposed
to longer and more intense heat waves (GNAT Climate Report, 223). Based
on the three Global Circulation Models (2017) (GCMs; HadGEM2-ES, MPI-
ESMMR and GFDL-ESM2M) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) used by
Demircan et al (2017), it is estimated that the annual average temperature
rises in Türkiye will be 1°C-2°C in 2016-2040 period, 1.5°C-4°C in 2041-2070
period, and 5°C-5°C in 2071-2099.
According to GNAT Climate Report, extreme weather conditions will not
lead to casualties everywhere, (Turkish Grand National Assembly Climate
Report, p. 251), which, to our opinion, is an optimistic assumption. Although
the anticipation that with the proper infrastructure, there won’t be any deaths
has a rational basis, we predict that the there will be an increase in risks in
terms of damage and casualties considering the socio-cultural behavior
patterns of the society. In fact, in the field research, it is seen that the people
in Canakkale, a population which “is used to” strong winds, seem to be
“sensitive to meteorological warnings” according to certain institutions
(AFAD, GAMER, Red Crescent, etc.) while the cases of death announced in
press prove otherwise. This shows that storm is not considered a disaster in
people’s mind while people rather associate “earthquakes” with disasters.
Findings show that based on data received from institutions on how to act
during storms, the states of the buildings, and the need for storm shelters,
there is no concrete evidence of any storm risk analyses for cities. It seems
essential to develop educational practices at all levels to raise public and
institutional awareness of storms. In terms of risk analyses, it should be noted

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