Page 99 - Çevre Şehir İklim İngilizce - Sayı 1

Aysun Aygün Oğur

negative effects of climate change will also influence tourism demand. It is
revealed that in the upcoming years, touristic travels based on winter sports
will be more vulnerable to climate change (Cocolas et al., 2016).
The rise in sea levels and extreme weather conditions will affect the
population living in coastal settlements not only physically, but also financially
(Jarratt and Davies, 2020). Coastal biodiversity coastal eco-system and the
historical, cultural and structural values of the coastal regions each constitutes
an element of tourism, and they form the image of the destination. According
to a study implemented by Marzeion and Levermann (2014), due to a
1°C-increase, 47 of 720 UNESCO World Heritage Sites will face the danger of
being submerged under water owing to rising sea levels, while a 2°C-increase
will lead 110, and a 3°C-increase will lead 136 heritage sites to face destruction.
The Literature review reveals that it is hard to predict the possible changes
in preferences of tourists due to climate change. However, modelling future
climatic conditions will make it possible to estimate the potential climate
effects. (Amelung et al., 2007). The suitability of expected climatic conditions
as factors that will influence tourism demand is an important topic of research.

The Effects of Climate Change on Türkiye

According to a report issued by IPCC (2021), if global temperatures reach
2°C, it can be concluded with high confidence that due to the increase in heat
in the Mediterranean region, there will be drought, a decrease in precipitation,
an increase in fires, a rise in sea levels, and a fall in the deposited snow. The
2100 climate change projections for Türkiye predict a 2-4°C increase in average
temperatures (Türkeş, 2001; Önol et al., 2009; Şen, 2013), a 3-6°C increase in
summer temperatures (Demircan et al., 2014; Demir et al., 2008; Önol et al.,
2009), a 20% decrease in annual precipitation levels (Demircan et al., 2014),
and an increase in the severity and frequency of heat waves, extreme weather
conditions and dry summers (Türkeş, 1994). The effects of climate change in
Türkiye are expected to be an increase in average temperatures, a change in
precipitation forms, a decrease in water resources, an increase in forest fires,
and an increase in drought and desertification. Future projections predict
these negative effects to increase gradually.
There are many climate change scenarios and projections about Türkiye.
One of them, a study by the General Directorate of Meteorology and
Istanbul Technical University (ITU) Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, makes
predictions for the years 2071-2100 about the future based on IPCC “SRES A2”
scenario. The study estimates a 2-3oC-increase in temperatures, a decrease
in precipitation in the Aegean and Mediterranean costs, and an increase in

84 Journal of Environment, Urbanization and Climate,