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Climate Change Responsive Tourism Planning:

precipitation in the Black Sea costs. Another example to projection studies on
Türkiye is a study conducted by Giannakopoulos et al (2005) for World Wildlife
Fund (WWF). The study reports that a there will be an estimated increase
of 2oC in temperatures compared to pre-industrial periods. The study also
suggests that the maximum temperature increase will be more than the
minimum temperature increase while the precipitation levels will increase only
in Black Sea region, and decrease by 20% in the rest of the regions.
According to IPCC (2019) report, the rise in sea levels is expected to be
between 0.29 m and 1.1 m. The results of the study, which give the highest
estimated value, all coastal settlements face grave risks such as flooding or
overflows.
Models which reduce global projections on the effects of climate change to
regional-local levels using a variety of methods and models give an insight as
to how Türkiye will be affected by climate change. However, they lack detailed
information on sub-regions. When different models are examined, it can
be said that the expected effects are similar, but the severity and frequency
depends on the model and the scenario. Results point out to the fact that the
temperature increase in summer time will be higher compared to winter time.
The highest increase in temperatures will be in Eastern Anatolia, Southeastern
Anatolia, in the Southern region and the hinterland. The precipitation levels in
Black Sea region will remain the same or will continue with a slight decrease
while there will be a small decrease in Western Anatolia and Marmara region.
However, in the Eastern regions of Türkiye, a dramatic drop is expected. The
overall increase in winter precipitation might seem to be a positive effect, but
given the overall increase in temperatures in winter time, it is thought that
the precipitation will not have an effect on the water levels in other seasons.
Consequently, there will be an expected decrease in the annual river flows and
water resources. Additionally, the increased temperatures will lead to a rise in
evaporation. Studies compare the decrease in precipitation with evaporation
and conclude that there will be a great deal of water loss. The most critical
water loss is expected to happen in the south, in the Mediterranean Basin,
Konya Basin, Euphrates and Tigris Basins (Aygün, 2021).

The Effects of Climate Change in Türkiye’s Tourism

The tourism investments in Türkiye started with government subsidies
following the Tourism Promotion Act in the 1980s and gained momentum with
the growth of the sector and became an important source of foreign exchange
in the 1990s. With this growth, Türkiye became one of the ten most popular
tourist destinations in the world (Okuyucu ve Somuncu, 2018). However,

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