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Climate Change Responsive Tourism Planning:

There will be a decline in the number of tourists in some regions while the
climatic conditions in especially Northern regions will be more favorable with
the increase in temperatures, which will give these regions a great advantage
to become new tourism destinations. In this case, it seems highly probable
that the current tourist attractions will lose their popularity and new tourism
destinations will emerge.
A study run by Hamilton et al. (2005) aimed to model the effects of climate
change on tourism through a global simulation model. The study concluded
that tourism demand will shift to Northern regions. They have also applied the
same model on a small scale, including the countries, Germany, Ireland and
England. It was concluded that these countries, which provide most tourists
to Mediterranean region, will move towards domestic tourism due to climate
change. This regional study supports the previous conclusions of the global
model (Hamilton and Tol, 2007).
To reveal the effects of climate change on the tourism in Mediterranean
region, Amelung and Viner (2006) conducted a comprehensive study based
on the IPCC climate change projections. According to the results of the study,
in the Southern Mediterranean region which covers Türkiye, Spain, Italy and
Greece, climatic conditions in spring time will be more suitable for outdoor
tourism while summer months will not be suitable for tourism anymore due to
extreme heat. Moreover, it was concluded that North European regions will
have milder and more suitable climatic conditions for tourism. The projections
of Ciscar et al. (2014) for 2080 estimate a decrease in tourism demand by
5% in Europe and by 11% in the Mediterranean region due to the increasing
temperatures. Parallel with previous studies, it was suggested that tourism
will rise in North European region. Similarly, a modelling study conducted by
Köberl et al. (2016) focusing on Italy (Sardinia) and Tunisia (Cap Bon) concluded
that owing to the effects of climate change, tourism incomes will increase
during spring months, but will decrease in summer months.
Additionally, direct and indirect effects of climate change are expected to
take place, including an increase in extreme weather conditions, a decrease in
tourist safety, a drop in precipitation, a fall in the level of snow, emergence of
unsuitable conditions for winter sports, a decrease in natural resources due to
the increased demand, loss of biodiversity, a rise in sea levels, and the loss of
attractive features in tourism destinations (Amelung et al., 2007; IPCC, 2018).

Research conducted in Australia by König (1998) is one of the first studies
to suggest that the decrease in the accumulated snow in winter tourism
centers will change destination preferences of tourists. Thus, it suggested that

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