Page 174 - Çevre Şehir İklim İngilizce - Sayı 1

Estimation of Co Emission
2

in the 2000s. For this reason, aviation sector in Türkiye is still developing
and rapidly growing. Thus, the growth rates for Europe mentioned in these
reports do not reflect the growth rates of Türkiye very well.
On the other hand, as rapid growth in aviation in Türkiye and the world is
still going on and is expected to continue in the future, it’s assumed that the
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to fuels burnt by airplanes will inevitably
increase. The emissions based on aviation activities make up 2-3% of the
total global anthropogenic CO emissions (Edwards et al, 2016). Although
2
aviation contributes to climate change by a small percentage, it displays a
more rapid growth trend compared to other sources of emission (Mayor and
Tol, 2009). Therefore, controlling the effect of aviation on climate change and
international CO emissions has become an important issue for policy makers.
2
This study aims to inform the decisions to be taken for long-term sustainable
growth of aviation sector in Türkiye without restricting aviation activities. The
study estimates CO emissions up to 2030 related to Türkiye’s international
2
civil aviation activities based on econometric regression analysis . The study
3
covers estimates on only CO emissions from commercial airline services on an
2
international level. In the second part of the essay, the studies on passenger,
fuel and emission models from aviation sector were summarized. In the next
section, the method and data sources used in the study were given. In the
4th part, the estimation results of the study were mentioned and the overall
results of the study were listed.
Literature Review
Although there is no previous study particularly on this topic in Türkiye,
literature includes studies on factors affecting the growth of air traffic and
estimates on future fuel demand.
In a study published in 2013, to identify the factors affecting the demands
based on domestic flights in city pairs, a semi-logarithmic regression model was
established. Although the study focuses on domestic flights, it is instrumental
in its indications. The study identifies urban population, distance and the
number of available beds in touristic facilities as important macroeconomic
factors affecting air transportation demands in Türkiye. On the other hand,
average ticket prices, travel durations, and the variables of transit flights
(such as the available direct flights) seem to affect airline passenger demand
negatively (Sivrikaya and Tunç, 2013).
Another study analyses factors affecting civil aviation in three main
headings, social, economic and demographic factors. The results of the study
indicate that performance indicators such as the tendency to travel, the level

3 The drop in air traffic due to Covid-19 was not taken into consideration in this study.

Year 1 / Issue 1 / Jan 2022 159