Page 172 - Çevre Şehir İklim İngilizce - Sayı 1

FORECASTING TÜRKİYE'S CO EMISSIONS FROM
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INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AIR TRANSPORT

Deniz KAYMAK - Merih AYDINALP KÖKSAL

ABSTRACT
Nowadays, the aviation sector plays a vital role in the economic develop-
ment of countries by connecting the continents. Air transportation is prefer-
red more and more thanks to its advantages over the other transportation
modes. Due to the increasing demand for the aviation industry, inevitably,
CO emissions of the sector increased rapidly. Despite contributing to climate
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change in small percentages, the aviation industry of Türkiye shows a much
faster growth trend than other sources of emissions or industries. In this study,
Türkiye’s CO emissions from international civil aviation activities are deter-
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mined using the IPCC methodology between 2018 and 2030 by modeling
Türkiye’s air passenger traffic demand under different scenarios. It is forecas-
ted that air passenger traffic would reach 375,270 passenger-km according
to the high scenario and 283,140 million passenger-km according to the low
scenario using the air passenger traffic modeling. By adding fuel efficiency
assumptions to the estimated air passenger traffic data, future fuel demand
and corresponding CO emissions are calculated. As a result, Türkiye’s CO
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emissions from international civil aviation activities in 2030 are expected to
be between 23.54 and 31.21 million tons. Even in the most optimistic case,
CO emissions of the international civil aviation of Türkiye tend to increase
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approximately1.5 times, and under the highest scenario CO emissions are
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expected to double in 2030 compared to 2017 levels. This study demonstra-
ted that CO emissions of the civil aviation sector continue to be one of the
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fastest-growing sources of emissions in Türkiye. Moreover, it is expected that
the civil aviation sector will take a large share of Türkiye’s carbon budget in
the near future.

Keywords: CO Emissions, Civil Aviation, Aviation Emissions, International
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Aviation, Climate Change.

Year 1 / Issue 1 / Jan 2022 157