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FORECASTING TÜRKİYE'S CO EMISSIONS FROM
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INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AIR TRANSPORT

Deniz KAYMAK - Merih AYDINALP KÖKSAL

ABSTRACT
Nowadays, the aviation sector plays a vital role in the economic development of countries by conne-
cting the continents. Air transportation is preferred more and more thanks to its advantages over the
other transportation modes. Due to the increasing demand for the aviation industry, inevitably, CO
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emissions of the sector increased rapidly. Despite contributing to climate change in small percentages,
the aviation industry of Turkey shows a much faster growth trend than other sources of emissions or
industries. In this study, Turkey’s CO emissions from international civil aviation activities are de-
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termined using the IPCC methodology between 2018 and 2030 by modeling Turkey's air passenger
traffic demand under different scenarios. It is forecasted that air passenger traffic would reach 375,270
passenger-km according to the high scenario and 283,140 million passenger-km according to the low
scenario using the air passenger traffic modeling. By adding fuel efficiency assumptions to the estima-
ted air passenger traffic data, future fuel demand and corresponding CO emissions are calculated. As
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a result, Turkey's CO emissions from international civil aviation activities in 2030 are expected to be
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between 23.54 and 31.21 million tons. Even in the most optimistic case, CO emissions of the interna-
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tional civil aviation of Turkey tend to increase approximately1.5 times, and under the highest scenario
CO emissions are expected to double in 2030 compared to 2017 levels. This study demonstrated that
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CO emissions of the civil aviation sector continue to be one of the fastest-growing sources of emissi-
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ons in Turkey. Moreover, it is expected that the civil aviation sector will take a large share of Turkey's
carbon budget in the near future.
Keywords: CO Emissions, Civil Aviation, Aviation Emissions, International Aviation, Climate Change.
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Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Çevre Mühendisliği Bölümü
Mail: dnzkymk@gmail.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2053-7705
Doç. Dr., Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Çevre Mühendisliği Bölümü
Mail: aydinalp@hacettepe.edu.tr
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4201-6898

Makale Atıf Bilgisi: Kaymak, D.- Aydınalp Köksal, M. (2022). “Türkiye’nin
Uluslararası Sivil Hava Ulaşımından Kaynaklanan CO 2
Emisyonunun Tahmini”, Çevre, Şehir ve İklim Dergisi.
Yıl: 1. Sayı: 1. ss. 158-172.
Makale Türü: Araştırma
Geliş Tarihi: 30.01.2022
Kabul Tarihi: 03.02.2022
Yayın Tarihi: 20.02.2022
Yayın Sezonu: Ocak 2022

Çevre, Şehir ve İklim Dergisi
İklim Değişikliği | Ocak 2022 | Sayı: 1